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Will War Affect My Portfolio?

The news today about military conflict spreading within the Middle East is bound to worry us all.

Indeed, the past couple of years have been most upsetting in terms of the loss of innocent lives, with inflationary consequences as a result of rising Oil prices on the back of War in a ‘post-Covid’ world.

So is that it? Are we back into the double digit inflation spiral again, with supply chains floundering, employees demanding higher wages and central banks hiking up interest rates?

Well, at this stage, I would say ‘no’.  Much depends upon whether Iran becomes involved as a major Oil supplier. The current military intervention is clearly designed to re-open the Red Sea as a safe passage for global supply chains. If matters calm down, we may see small levels of inflation – but nothing like the 2021/22 post-Covid madness.

If Oil prices do shoot up, we will be glad of some of the funds that we have kept within our client portfolios that manage to survive much better during inflation spikes.

The really important message today for investors is this – ‘You need to be in it to win it!’.

There is a chance that markets slump in the short term as the world deals with more Wars, in which case we will need to wait a little longer for true recovery.

However, there is also a chance that markets just ‘shrug off’ the impact of Middle Eastern conflict and that portfolios continue to recover nicely.  Either way – recovery (as we have seen in the past month) is frantic and unpredictable when it comes!

The winners are those who stick to their long term 5-10 year investment plan with a well diversified portfolio.

As ever, we are here for you 100% if you need anything at all. Nothing is too much trouble. Stay well and safe.

My very best wishes. Darren


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